評估新創公司的簡單方法


Photo via via VisualHunt.com

在資訊完全不對稱的階段, 有些小技巧 當然也是參考一些授信原則,但什麼都不知道 所知到很少, 怎麼看出一家新創公司搞什麼?

1  看網站內容是否與營業登記內容相符 (Consistency, Integrity)

  1. 看產品開發進度 (Product)
  2. 看產品預計上市時程? (Timetable)

  3. 看目標市場 (Market)

  4. 看目標市場,同業的多寡與競爭概況 (Competition, Peers)

  5. 看負責人是否實際真實控制這家企業?  還是個人頭,魁壘? (Corporate governance)

  6. 粗估一個產品在可預見的未來在目標市場一個月約能產生多少現金? (1.3.6.12,24 月) (Cash flow forecast)

8. 公司每月固定成本約多少? 多少人?  房租水電? (Fix cost, Overhead)

我為何寫這個?  一個不踏實的新創公司跟詐騙集團沒啥兩樣? 一個沒目標的新創 還不如一個踏實的實體商店.  新創公司在新創媒體的高談闊論對企業價值的延續毫無幫助, 很多都唬爛的.

這樣的評估條件絕對不會離投行差太多.

也用直覺, 看一群人的目標感. 就代替千言萬語.

(加入新創公司前,該如何評估新創公司的價值?// 

http://www.dgcovery.com/2017/01/29/how-to-choose-a-startup-company2/

http://www.dgcovery.com/2017/01/26/how-to-choose-a-startup-company1/)

散戶

比特幣市場

關於比特幣的金融創新我blog 有寫過.

全球主要有9個交易所.

序号 代码 名称 最近成交价 买一价 卖一价 最高价 最低价 成交量
1 796F 796期货 $226.00 $225.00 $225.00 $228.00 $221.60 12210 BTC
2 BTC100 BTC100 ¥1389.82 ¥1388.00 ¥1389.00 ¥1403.82 ¥1385.01 13700 BTC
3 BTCC 比特币中国 ¥1387.02 ¥1386.00 ¥1387.00 ¥1401.50 ¥1371.01 86445 BTC
4 BTCEB BTC-e $222.50 $222.00 $221.00 $224.84 $219.46 5844 BTC
5 BTCT BTCTrade ¥1389.50 ¥1389.00 ¥1389.00 ¥1403.87 ¥1370.18 68370 BTC
6 BTER 比特儿Bter ¥1384.17 ¥1383.00 ¥1386.00 ¥1399.21 ¥1370.69 45 BTC
7 BTSTP Bitstamp $223.98 $223.00 $224.00 $226.51 $221.43 5748 BTC
8 CHBTC 中国BTC ¥1387.57 ¥1386.00 ¥1387.00 ¥1400.00 ¥1367.84 51356 BTC
9 OKCOIN OKCoin ¥1390.93 ¥1390.00 ¥1390.00 ¥1403.00 ¥1368.00 81523 BTC

目前在伦敦,人们可以在7个自动取款机上将现金转换为比特币,并使用它来支付从泰式按摩到礼服设计,从猪排到啤酒等各种消费。一个公司甚至允许使用比特币来支付房租

 

Tool: Free lance 的估價單

網站設計的估價單

用這網站比較方便;但我還沒用過.

每天報價填單,重複性質的工作很多,

所以 這網站讓重複性的報價估價工作, 變得方便.  這是科技的意義. 沒錯.

新加坡創投

最近在政策的引導下,台灣的創業風氣與過去幾年已經比較好了. 台 那些老骨頭 僵屍股不再具吸引人才投入的條件.台灣的大小創投約300多家,  新加坡創投有幾家也是政府在支持,  例如  NRF TIS scheme and the ESVF initiative.所以台灣的做法也是類似, 以創業作為創新的驅動.

我有網友也是在新創公司, 可以參考這幾家SG創投資訊. 但創投都是聚焦本國, 解有官方支持, 政策力道明顯, 跟FDI 有點不一樣.  我看到的都是搞數位經濟及生物科技.  沒看到搞製造業, 或IOT的.  創投方向, 各國都還是有些許策略性的差異.  但不論專注在哪, 做SEA 市場,如果沒做過,應該要作多做些調研,  台灣人往美國跑的比較多, SEA 的 PEST不見得熟.

 

 

 

 

 

 

比特幣的數位貨幣革命2

繼續~

不論以後比特幣的命運是什麼,未來數位貨幣的發展 一定將巨大影響金融業銀行業的交易方式與作業流程.

在台灣,你去過銀行辦事情嗎?
先拿個號碼牌, 填寫單子, 那單子要用筆寫帳號 日期,中文名, 金額, 還要中文金額, 你可以想像一個法國人進入台灣的銀行, 要他填單子, 要他寫"陸拾捌圓整", 這類的文字將是多麼困難的事. 因此,也可以理解金融業充滿很多創新的可能與機會.

比特幣,把它想成列印前的word檔.

現今金融交易,銀行是守門員的角色,是監管放款,及授信, 比特幣是將中間人的角色除去,去中心化.

  • 比特幣交易流程說明:

To understand how it works and why it is more efficient and less expensive than the existing system, let’s take a single example: buying a cup of coffee at your local coffee shop. If you pay with a credit card, the transaction seems simple enough: You swipe your card, you grab your cup, you leave.

In fact, the financial system is just getting started with you and the coffee shop. Before the store actually gets paid and your bank balance falls, more than a half-dozen institutions—such as a billing processor, the card association ( Visa , MasterCard , etc.), your bank, the coffee shop’s bank, a payment processor, the clearinghouse network managed by the regional Federal Reserve Banks—will have shared part of your account information or otherwise intervened in the flow of money.

If all goes well, your bank will confirm your identity and good credit and send payment to the coffee shop’s bank two or three days later. For this privilege, the coffee shop pays a fee of between 2% and 3%.

Now let’s pay in bitcoin, assuming that your favorite coffee shop accepts it (more than 82,000 merchants world-wide already do). If you don’t already have bitcoins, you will need to buy some from one of a host of online exchanges and brokerages, using a simple transfer from your regular bank account. You will then assign the bitcoins to a wallet, which functions like an online account.

Once inside the coffee shop, you will open your wallet’s smartphone app and hold its QR code reader up to the coffee shop’s device. This allows your embedded secret password to unlock a bitcoin address and publicly informs the bitcoin computer network that you are transferring $1.75 worth of bitcoin (currently about 0.0076 bitcoin) to the coffee shop’s address. This takes just seconds, and then you walk off with your coffee.

  • 關鍵

What happens next is crucial. In contrast to the existing system, your transaction is immediately broadcast to the world (in alphanumeric data that can’t be traced to you personally). Your information is then gathered up by bitcoin “miners,” the computers that maintain the system and are compensated, roughly every 10 minutes, for their work confirming transactions.

The computer that competes successfully to package the data from your coffee purchase adds that information to the blockchain ledger, which prompts all the other miners to investigate the underlying transaction. Once your bona fides are verified, the updated blockchain is considered legitimate, and the miners update their records accordingly.

  • 結帳扣款快

It takes from 10 minutes to an hour for this software-driven network of computers to formally confirm a transfer from your blockchain address to that of the coffee shop—compared with a two- to three-day wait for the settlement of a credit-card transaction. Some new digital currencies are able to finalize transactions within seconds.

  • 隱私

There are almost zero fees, and the personal information of users isn’t divulged. This bitcoin feature especially appeals to privacy advocates: Nobody learns where you buy coffee, the name of your doctor or—if you’re into that sort of thing—where you buy your illegal drugs.

  • 新興市場

The advantages of digital currency are far more visible in emerging markets. It allows migrant workers, for example, to bypass fees that often run to 10% or more for the international payment services that they use to send money home to their families.

  • the distrust among strangers in commercial transactions with one another.
  • 比特幣是未來app的平台

What most excites these investors is bitcoin’s promise as a platform whose future applications are almost unimaginably broad. Already, hundreds of specialized apps are being built on top of the digital-currency blockchain software, which is seen in this context as a kind of base operating system.

  • 去中心化, 幫助

the rise of digital currency may be a matter of evolutionary destiny. The Internet has disrupted and decentralized much of the world economy, but the centralized world of finance remains stuck in the 15th century. Digital currency can help it adapt and survive.

基本上,我會把比特幣當成是一種輔助, 就像信用卡一樣, 但交易還比信用卡快, 對某些行業的流程改造會有很大影響. 但要留心他的缺點, 巴菲特已經說了: 想致富遠離比特幣.

” Owning bitcoin doesn’t mean having a digital banknote in a digital pocket"

  • 比特幣網站參考:

Coindesk : http://www.coindesk.com/

Coinbase :  https://www.coinbase.com/

原文出處 : http://x.co/6LhGN

比特幣的數位貨幣革命

這篇關於比特幣的文章,我還在看.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-revolutionary-power-of-digital-currency-1422035061

比特幣目前給人印象還不太好, 比特幣是一種數位貨幣,在數位經濟裡有很多創新的可能. 金融交易依賴銀行作擔保. 我們用鈔票, 因為這鈔票有銀行作保, 這一行也也造就很多從業人員, 會計師,精算師…等等;   但比特幣可以讓交易"去中心化", 也可以匿名化. 這是機會, 也是風險.

當越來越多開源的開發者開發更心更好的版本,這技術會有更多層面的影響. 比特幣並不會取代傳統貨幣, 但這是價值交換方式的根本改變. 如果全球經濟運作廣泛適用這種方式, 這模式會砍掉很多金融交易成本.

  • 比特幣缺點,

1 價格波動太大. 採用這貨幣的小店成本會很不穩定, 一直變.
2 匿名交易助長犯罪交易

這些負面的影響, 都影響其發展,直到都能一一克服解決.

比特幣還在發展中, 開源, 免版權,讓很多開發者願意投入. 目前全球約1萬名工程師在開發彼特幣以解決這貨幣的種種問題.

以前我們用筆和紙書寫, 有了電腦後,漸漸我們改用鍵盤和微軟的word輸入把文章存在檔案.

這樣的演進,比特幣的發展也是一樣. 但他並不是紙鈔的數位化. 反而是在會計上應用很多. 會計帳目的來來往往用數位貨幣結算, 會減少很多交易成本.

在放貸方面可以應用在記帳與匯款,但沒有擔保, 但能有個bitcoin的地址密碼可以轉帳.

待續…joe

Eva 企業經濟附加價值再提昇

更多有關 EVA 企業經濟附加價值再提昇 的事情

EVA: Ecnomic value added,經濟附加價值
在職涯中如果員工與老闆之間對績效的溝通能用Eva,討論,衡量,以Eva做為一個客觀的指標, 那員工應該是幸福的.
因為你的老闆很理性 很講理.

Eva= NOPAT(net operating profit after tax)- cost of capital

獎金紅利怎麼分. 用Eva作依據. Eva可以連結經理人與股東的利益. 在每一個工作流程的環節中以Eva 為依歸,讓每一個環節都能有經濟效益,
業務端能以創新的作法開創更大的業績, 生產線現能思考更精進的作法讓生產更有經濟效率.
企業中每一個環節能以Eva為工通的語言 讓每個企業內的活動能產生最大的價值.

以Eva所以引導的獎勵制度 也要深入最基層. 讓Eva 用於激勵制度,用於購併,用於產線,用於製程, 用於傭金制度,
讓勞資以Eva為目標為股東權益最大化.

關鍵還是在於企業主的決心與意願. 其實企業理很多經理人只關心自身利益,而不是在企業內產生價值. 用Eva可以將衡量客觀化.

所以這工具很好,但關鍵還是老闆用不用?
以台灣公司的中小規模或家族企業經營, 很少人跟員工溝通用EVA吧. 這真是有點諷刺.

Note: Ratio Analysis

Ratio analysis

Liqidity ratios

current ratio=current assets/ current liabilities
acid test (quick ratio)=(current asset-inventory)/current liabilities

Asset management ratios

inventory turn over ratio:sales/ inventory
DSO=day sales outstanding= receivable/average sales per day(annual sales/360)
fixed asset turn over ratio: sales/ net fixed asset
total asset turn over ratio=sales/ total asset

Debt management ratios
total debt / total asset(D/A)
TIE ratio(time-interest-earned ratio)=EBIT/interest charges

Profitability ratios
BEP(basic earning power)=EBIT/ total asset
ROA
ROE

Market value ratios
P/E ratio
Price/cash flow ratio= price/cash flow per share
M/B ratio= market / book ratio

Du Pont equation

EVA
= EBIT(1-Corporate tax)-(operating capital)(cost of capital after tax)
= net income (equity capital)(cost of equity capital)

證券分析的變化

coffee2今晚要與Matt碰面,好幾年沒碰到他, 因這幾年投行在證券分析的做法及受IT技術的影響,他離開了DB. 他給我一篇文章.

文章內容大致就是關於分析師的衝擊.
這幾年市場交易量縮減,提供報告都變的沒意義了. 被動投資上升,電腦選股,使研究報告需求都減少了.

現在選股都用軟件自動選股, 標準設定進去,合於標準的股票秀出來,跟以前法人出報告賣給國外機構不太一樣. 投行為省錢把硯就單為移到低成本國家,DB移到印度,所以現在獨立研究出現了.

commission sharing agreements” have grown in popularity since they were introduced in 2003. These unbundle brokers’ commissions into costs for executing trades and costs for research, which clients can use to buy services from third parties.

Independent research outfits offer an alternative. Though small, their share of the “research vote has grown since 2011. They are untainted by the conflicts of interest that bedevil banks offering research on clients, and that led to a 2003 settlement enforcing stricter separation of investment banking and research in America.

Independent providers do not have an answer to every problem: making research on smaller firms profitable is a perennial issue. But they do offer radically different services from the banks’ unimaginative valuation models. Bespoke services are in demand.

Hedge funds now use research dollars to pay for ground surveillance on the progress of mining or oil projects in Africa, in order to value them better.

Others take to the sky. RS Metrics, a satellite-intelligence provider, has reported strong demand from the financial sector for its aerial-imaging services.

Some funds even hire former intelligence agents, from firms like Business Intelligence Advisors, to test whether corporate bosses are massaging the truth in investor meetings.

這會是見面的一個主題吧.

他已知我在做Art business, 但應解釋是一半創業一半興趣的性質.
台灣電子業情況受多方因素影響很深,他很快就能理解這樣的轉變.

綠點又接到Apple 5S 大單,又是那種OEM MODEL,實在無力再去追求那種血汗式的經濟成長.

Matt應該會往台灣產業的資訊研究服務發展.
雖然有些產業已不行了,但還是多的Business在這供應鏈中交易,且每天都在發生.

希望台灣仍能扮演好與美國的戰略夥伴關係,讓老美在台灣都能喜歡這地方,雖然這供應鏈架構不甚合理,但多少家庭就在這樣架構下,以此維生. 台灣其至少友善,自由. 這幾年我已甚少再接待美國客戶,以前台美好熱絡阿. 大環境影響真的很大.

Matt是少數現在聽的懂我講一些搖滾,爵士樂團的朋友,
我應該從小受美國文化影響很深吧,那時還沒有網路耶,
那是一個美好的年代.

%d 位部落客按了讚: