證券分析的變化

coffee2今晚要與Matt碰面,好幾年沒碰到他, 因這幾年投行在證券分析的做法及受IT技術的影響,他離開了DB. 他給我一篇文章.

文章內容大致就是關於分析師的衝擊.
這幾年市場交易量縮減,提供報告都變的沒意義了. 被動投資上升,電腦選股,使研究報告需求都減少了.

現在選股都用軟件自動選股, 標準設定進去,合於標準的股票秀出來,跟以前法人出報告賣給國外機構不太一樣. 投行為省錢把硯就單為移到低成本國家,DB移到印度,所以現在獨立研究出現了.

commission sharing agreements” have grown in popularity since they were introduced in 2003. These unbundle brokers’ commissions into costs for executing trades and costs for research, which clients can use to buy services from third parties.

Independent research outfits offer an alternative. Though small, their share of the “research vote has grown since 2011. They are untainted by the conflicts of interest that bedevil banks offering research on clients, and that led to a 2003 settlement enforcing stricter separation of investment banking and research in America.

Independent providers do not have an answer to every problem: making research on smaller firms profitable is a perennial issue. But they do offer radically different services from the banks’ unimaginative valuation models. Bespoke services are in demand.

Hedge funds now use research dollars to pay for ground surveillance on the progress of mining or oil projects in Africa, in order to value them better.

Others take to the sky. RS Metrics, a satellite-intelligence provider, has reported strong demand from the financial sector for its aerial-imaging services.

Some funds even hire former intelligence agents, from firms like Business Intelligence Advisors, to test whether corporate bosses are massaging the truth in investor meetings.

這會是見面的一個主題吧.

他已知我在做Art business, 但應解釋是一半創業一半興趣的性質.
台灣電子業情況受多方因素影響很深,他很快就能理解這樣的轉變.

綠點又接到Apple 5S 大單,又是那種OEM MODEL,實在無力再去追求那種血汗式的經濟成長.

Matt應該會往台灣產業的資訊研究服務發展.
雖然有些產業已不行了,但還是多的Business在這供應鏈中交易,且每天都在發生.

希望台灣仍能扮演好與美國的戰略夥伴關係,讓老美在台灣都能喜歡這地方,雖然這供應鏈架構不甚合理,但多少家庭就在這樣架構下,以此維生. 台灣其至少友善,自由. 這幾年我已甚少再接待美國客戶,以前台美好熱絡阿. 大環境影響真的很大.

Matt是少數現在聽的懂我講一些搖滾,爵士樂團的朋友,
我應該從小受美國文化影響很深吧,那時還沒有網路耶,
那是一個美好的年代.

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